A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
